We checked 17 economics journals on Friday, March 28, 2025 using the Crossref API. For the period March 21 to March 27, we retrieved 36 new paper(s) in 10 journal(s).

American Economic Journal: Applied Economics

Generic title: Not a research article
Front Matter
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The Productivity Consequences of Pollution-Induced Migration in China
Gaurav Khanna, Wenquan Liang, Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak, Ran Song
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We quantify how pollution affects aggregate productivity and welfare in spatial equilibrium. We show that skilled workers in China emigrate away from polluted cities. These patterns are evident under various empirical specifications, such as when instrumenting for pollution using upwind power plants, or thermal inversions. Pollution changes the spatial distribution of skilled and unskilled workers, and wage returns by location. We quantify the loss in aggregate productivity due to this re-sorting by estimating a spatial equilibrium model. Counterfactual simulations show that reducing pollution increases productivity through spatial re-sorting by approximately as much as the direct health benefits of clean air. (JEL J24, J31, J61, P25, P28, Q53, R23)
Family Spillover Effects of Marginal Diagnoses: The Case of ADHD
Petra Persson, Xinyao Qiu, Maya Rossin-Slater
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The health care system uses patient family medical history in many settings, and this practice is widely believed to improve the efficiency of health care allocation. This paper provides a counterpoint by documenting that reliance on hereditary information can amplify the misallocation of low-value care. We study Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder and show that reliance on family medical history generates a “snowball effect”—the propagation of an original marginal diagnosis to a patient’s relatives. This snowball effect raises the private and social costs of low-value care. (JEL H51, I12, I13, I18, J12, J13)
The High and Falling Price of Cement in Africa
Fabrizio Leone, Rocco Macchiavello, Tristan Reed
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Prices for several intermediate inputs, including cement, are higher in developing economies—particularly in Africa. Combining recent data from the International Comparison Program with a global directory of cement firms, we estimate an industry equilibrium model to distinguish between drivers of international price dispersion: demand, costs, conduct, and entry. Developing economies feature both higher marginal costs and higher markups. African markets are not characterized by less competitive conduct and, if anything, feature lower barriers to entry. Yet the small size of many national markets limits entry and competition and explains most of the higher markups and prices. Policy implications are discussed. (JEL D24, L13, L61, O14)
The Long-Term Effects of Career Guidance in High School and Student Financial Aid: Evidence from a Randomized Experiment
Laetitia Renée
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This paper studies the effects of a randomized control trial in which Canadian high school students were randomly invited to participate in a career guidance program during high school and/or made eligible for extra financial aid conditional on college enrollment. I use administrative records to examine the effects of the interventions on college enrollment, graduation, and income up to age 29. The guidance intervention increased students’ four-year college enrollment and graduation rates and had positive effects on individuals’ income in adulthood. The financial aid intervention had a significantly lower impact on individuals’ income in adulthood despite also increasing college enrollment. (JEL D12, I21, I22, I23, I28, J31)
Do Peers Matter in the Police Academy?
Roman Rivera
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Increasing underrepresented groups’ representation in police departments is a common proposal to reduce aggressive policing. This paper documents the effects of peer composition in the Chicago police academy on officers’ future arrests by exploiting the lottery system, which provides exogenous variation in cohort composition. I find that higher shares of peers from groups that police less aggressively, such as female and older officers, reduce all officers’ future low-level arrests. Peer race matters by amplifying the effects of gender and age. Overall, the results are most consistent with peers’ preferences for less aggressive policing shifting officers’ preferences and changing future behavior. (JEL H76, J15, J16, J45, J78, K42)
Wind of Change? Cultural Determinants of Maternal Labor Supply
Barbara Boelmann, Anna Raute, Uta Schönberg
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We investigate the role of cultural norms in shaping women’s labor supply decisions after childbirth. Specifically, we are interested in the interplay between childhood socialization and adulthood environment. To that end, we leverage the setting of the German reunification when East Germany’s gender-egalitarian culture induced by socialism and West Germany’s more traditional culture were brought together. We find that East German gender norms are persistent, whereas West German ones are not. West German mothers adjust their behavior to that of their East German peers not only when immersed in East German environment but even after returning to the West. (JEL D91, J13, J16, J22, N34, Z13)
Sustainable Poverty Reduction through Social Assistance: Modality, Context, and Complementary Programming in Bangladesh
Akhter Ahmed, Melissa Hidrobo, John Hoddinott, Bastien Kolt, Shalini Roy, Salauddin Tauseef
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Social assistance programs can increase consumption and reduce poverty, but less is known about whether these impacts are sustained after programs end or how design and context influence sustainability. Using data collected in two regions of Bangladesh four years after a randomized intervention ended, we find that combining cash transfers with complementary programming led to sustained increases in consumption and reductions in poverty. Combining food transfers with complementary programming showed similar patterns to a lesser extent. Cash alone had context-specific sustained effects; food alone had no sustained impacts. Results suggest that context, modality, and complementary programming matter for sustained impacts. (JEL D12, E21, I32, I38, O15)
Childcare, Labor Supply, and Business Development: Experimental Evidence from Uganda
Kjetil Bjorvatn, Denise Ferris, Selim Gulesci, Arne Nasgowitz, Vincent Somville, Lore Vandewalle
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We randomly offered a childcare subsidy, an equivalent cash grant, or both to mothers of three-to-five-year-old children. The childcare subsidy substantially increased the labor supply and earnings of single mothers, highlighting the importance of time constraints for them. Among couples, childcare did not affect mothers’ labor market outcomes but instead increased fathers’ salaried employment. At the household level, childcare led to higher income and consumption and improved child development. Cash grants positively affected mothers’ labor supply and income irrespective of the household structure, suggesting the general importance of credit constraints for women’s business development. (JEL H24, J13, J16, J22, J31, O12)

Econometrica

Generic title: Not a research article
Frontmatter of Econometrica Vol. 93 Iss. 2
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Cap‐and‐Trade and Carbon Tax Meet Arrow–Debreu
Robert M. Anderson, Haosui Duanmu
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We propose two general equilibrium models, quota equilibrium, and emission tax equilibrium. Government specifies quotas or taxes on emissions, and then refrains from further action. All results remain valid regardless of how government chooses its emissions target. Quota equilibrium exists; the allocation of emission property rights impacts the distribution of welfare. If the only externality arises from total net emissions, quota equilibrium is Pareto optimal among all feasible outcomes with the same total net emissions. For certain tax rates, emission tax equilibrium may not exist. Every quota equilibrium can be realized as an emission tax equilibrium and vice versa. However, different quota prices may arise in equilibrium from a single quota, and different emission levels may arise in equilibrium from a single tax rate. This leads to inequivalence between quota and emission tax equilibria.
Estimating Candidate Valence
Kei Kawai, Takeaki Sunada
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We estimate valence measures of candidates running in U.S. House elections from data on vote shares. Our identification and estimation strategy builds on ideas developed for estimating production functions, allowing us to control for possible endogeneity of campaign spending and sample selection of candidates due to endogenous entry. We find that incumbents have substantially higher valence measures than challengers running against them, resulting in about 3.5 percentage‐point differences in the vote share, on average. Eliminating differences in the valence of challengers and incumbents results in an increase in the winning probability of a challenger from 6.5% to 12.1%. Our measure of candidate valence can be used to study various substantive questions of political economy. We illustrate its usefulness by studying the source of incumbency advantage in U.S. House elections.
On (Constrained) Efficiency of Strategy‐Proof Random Assignment
Christian Basteck, Lars Ehlers
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We study random assignment of indivisible objects among a set of agents, when each agent is to receive one object and has strict preferences over the objects. Random Serial Dictatorship (RSD) satisfies equal treatment of equals, ex post efficiency, and strategy‐proofness. Answering a longstanding open question, we show that RSD is not characterized by those properties—there are other mechanisms satisfying equal treatment of equals, ex post efficiency, and strategy‐proofness which are not welfare‐equivalent to RSD. On the other hand, we show that RSD is not Pareto dominated by any mechanism that is (i) strategy‐proof and (ii) boundedly invariant. Moreover, the same holds for all mechanisms that are ex post efficient, strategy‐proof, and boundedly invariant: no such mechanism is dominated by any other mechanism that is strategy‐proof and boundedly invariant.
Comparative Statics With Adjustment Costs and the Le Chatelier Principle
Eddie Dekel, John K.-H. Quah, Ludvig Sinander
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We develop a theory of monotone comparative statics for models with adjustment costs. We show that comparative‐statics conclusions may be drawn under the usual ordinal complementarity assumptions on the objective function, assuming very little about costs: only a mild monotonicity condition is required. We use this insight to prove a general Le Chatelier principle: under the ordinal complementarity assumptions, if short‐run adjustment is subject to a monotone cost, then the long‐run response to a shock is greater than the short‐run response. We extend these results to a fully dynamic model of adjustment over time: the Le Chatelier principle remains valid, and under slightly stronger assumptions, optimal adjustment follows a monotone path. We apply our results to models of saving, production, pricing, labor supply, and investment.
Feedback Design in Dynamic Moral Hazard
Jeffrey C. Ely, George Georgiadis, Luis Rayo
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We study the joint design of dynamic incentives and performance feedback for an environment with a coarse (all‐or‐nothing) measure of performance, and show that hiding information from the agent can be an optimal way to motivate effort. Using a novel approach to incentive compatibility, we derive a two‐phase solution that begins with a “silent phase” where the agent is given no feedback and is asked to work non‐stop, and ends with a “full‐transparency phase” where the agent stops working as soon as a performance threshold is met. Hiding information leads to greater effort, but an ignorant agent is also more expensive to motivate. The two‐phase solution—where the agent's ignorance is fully frontloaded—stems from a “backward compounding effect” that raises the cost of hiding information as time passes.
People Are More Moral in Uncertain Environments
Yiting Chen, Songfa Zhong
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We conduct a series of experiments and document a robust behavioral pattern whereby people behave more morally in uncertain environments than degenerate deterministic ones. We show that this pattern is weakened when the moral implication of behavior is diminished or when uncertainty pertains to others rather than oneself. These findings are incompatible with standard models that respect dominance. We propose a mechanism based on the anxiety aspect of uncertain environments whereby people act morally as if their moral behavior can help deliver a better outcome. We further delve into the complexity aspect of uncertainty to arrive at a more comprehensive understanding of these findings.
Choices and Outcomes in Assignment Mechanisms: The Allocation of Deceased Donor Kidneys
Nikhil Agarwal, Charles Hodgson, Paulo Somaini
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While the mechanism design paradigm emphasizes notions of efficiency based on agent preferences, policymakers often focus on alternative objectives. School districts emphasize educational achievement, and transplantation communities focus on patient survival. It is unclear whether choice‐based mechanisms perform well when assessed based on these outcomes. This paper evaluates the assignment mechanism for allocating deceased donor kidneys on the basis of patient life‐years from transplantation (LYFT). We examine the role of choice in increasing LYFT and compare realized assignments to benchmarks that remove choice. Our model combines choices and outcomes in order to study how selection affects LYFT. We show how to identify and estimate the model using instruments derived from the mechanism. The estimates suggest that the design in use selects patients with better post‐transplant survival prospects and matches them well, resulting in an average LYFT of 9.29, which is 1.75 years more than a random assignment. However, the maximum aggregate LYFT is 14.08. Realizing the majority of the gains requires transplanting relatively healthy patients, who would have longer life expectancies even without a transplant. Therefore, a policymaker faces a dilemma between transplanting patients who are sicker and those for whom life will be extended the longest.
A Comment on: “Autoregressive Conditional Duration: A New Model for Irregularly Spaced Transaction Data”
Giuseppe Cavaliere, Thomas Mikosch, Anders Rahbek, Frederik Vilandt
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Based on the GARCH literature, Engle and Russell (1998) established consistency and asymptotic normality of the QMLE for the autoregressive conditional duration (ACD) model, assuming strict stationarity and ergodicity of the durations. Using novel arguments based on renewal process theory, we show that their results hold under the stronger requirement that durations have finite expectation. However, we demonstrate that this is not always the case under the assumption of stationary and ergodic durations. Specifically, we provide a counterexample where the MLE is asymptotically mixed normal and converges at a rate significantly slower than usual. The main difference between ACD and GARCH asymptotics is that the former must account for the number of durations in a given time span being random. As a by‐product, we present a new lemma which can be applied to analyze asymptotic properties of extremum estimators when the number of observations is random.
The Impact of Incarceration on Employment, Earnings, and Tax Filing
Andrew Garin, Dmitri Koustas, Carl McPherson, Samuel Norris, Matthew Pecenco, Evan K. Rose, Yotam Shem-Tov, Jeffrey Weaver
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We study the effect of incarceration on wages, self‐employment, and taxes and transfers in North Carolina and Ohio using two quasi‐experimental research designs: discontinuities in sentencing guidelines and random assignment to judges. Across both states, incarceration generates short‐term drops in economic activity while individuals remain in prison. As a result, a year‐long sentence decreases cumulative earnings over five years by 13%. Beyond five years, however, there is no evidence of lower employment, wage earnings, or self‐employment in either state, as well as among defendants with no prior incarceration history. These results suggest that upstream factors, such as other types of criminal justice interactions or pre‐existing labor market detachment, are more likely to be the cause of low earnings among the previously incarcerated, who we estimate would earn just $5000 per year on average if spared a prison sentence.
Uniform Priors for Impulse Responses
Jonas E. Arias, Juan F. Rubio-RamĂ­rez, Daniel F. Waggoner
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There has been a call for caution regarding the standard procedure for Bayesian inference in set‐identified structural vector autoregressions on the grounds that the common practice of using a uniform prior over the set of orthogonal matrices induces a non‐uniform prior for individual impulse responses or other quantities of interest. This paper challenges this call by formally showing that when the focus is on joint inference, the uniform prior over the set of orthogonal matrices is not only sufficient but also necessary for inference based on a uniform joint prior distribution over the identified set for the vector of impulse responses. In addition, we show how to conduct inference based on a uniform joint prior distribution for the vector of impulse responses.
A Quest for Knowledge
Christoph Carnehl, Johannes Schneider
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Is more novel research always desirable? We develop a model in which knowledge shapes society's policies and guides the search for discoveries. Researchers select a question and how intensely to study it. The novelty of a question determines both the value and difficulty of discovering its answer. We show that the benefits of discoveries are nonmonotone in novelty. Knowledge expands endogenously step‐by‐step over time. Through a dynamic externality, moonshots—research on questions more novel than what is myopically optimal—can improve the evolution of knowledge. Moonshots induce research cycles in which subsequent researchers connect the moonshot to previous knowledge.
Double Robust Bayesian Inference on Average Treatment Effects
Christoph Breunig, Ruixuan Liu, Zhengfei Yu
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We propose a double robust Bayesian inference procedure on the average treatment effect (ATE) under unconfoundedness. For our new Bayesian approach, we first adjust the prior distributions of the conditional mean functions, and then correct the posterior distribution of the resulting ATE. Both adjustments make use of pilot estimators motivated by the semiparametric influence function for ATE estimation. We prove asymptotic equivalence of our Bayesian procedure and efficient frequentist ATE estimators by establishing a new semiparametric Bernstein–von Mises theorem under double robustness; that is, the lack of smoothness of conditional mean functions can be compensated by high regularity of the propensity score and vice versa. Consequently, the resulting Bayesian credible sets form confidence intervals with asymptotically exact coverage probability. In simulations, our method provides precise point estimates of the ATE through the posterior mean and delivers credible intervals that closely align with the nominal coverage probability. Furthermore, our approach achieves a shorter interval length in comparison to existing methods. We illustrate our method in an application to the National Supported Work Demonstration following LaLonde (1986) and Dehejia and Wahba (1999).

Economic Journal

Service Offshoring and Export Experience
Giuseppe Berlingieri, Luca Marcolin, Emanuel Ornelas
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Service inputs significantly influence export costs and firm internationalisation. A new dataset on French firms’ participation in global value chains reveals that experienced exporters are more likely to source services at destination and within their group. We rationalise these facts in a model where firms are initially uncertain about their export profitability and learn it while selling abroad. The effect is amplified in uncertain markets and in presence of frictions to domestic sourcing. Offshoring firms, in turn, exhibit reduced volatility and are less likely to exit foreign markets. Our empirical findings strongly support these theoretical predictions.

European Economic Review

Mining and mistrust in government
Astghik Mavisakalyan, Anna Minasyan
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Appetite for Ignorance: Does eating meat cause information avoidance about its harms?
Bénédicte Droz, Berno Buechel, Mónica Capra, Xi Chen, Anis Nassar, Seong Gyu Park, Jin Xu, Shanshan Zhang, Joshua Tasoff
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Leaving the past behind: Effects of clean slate regulation on employment and earnings
Kabir Dasgupta, Keshar Ghimire, Alexander Plum
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On the GDP Effects of severe physical hazards
Martin Bodenstein, Mikaël Scaramucci
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Journal of Econometrics

Quantile prediction with factor-augmented regression: Structural instability and model uncertainty
Yundong Tu, Siwei Wang
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Quantile Granger causality in the presence of instability
Alexander Mayer, Dominik Wied, Victor Troster
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Model averaging prediction for possibly nonstationary autoregressions
Tzu-Chi Lin, Chu-An Liu
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Journal of Political Economy

Generic title: Not a research article
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JPE Turnaround Times
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Recent Referees
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Estimating Discrete Games with Many Firms and Many Decisions: An Application to Merger and Product Variety
Ying Fan, Chenyu Yang
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Persuasion with Multiple Actions
Davit Khantadze, Ilan Kremer, Andrzej Skrzypacz
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Journal of Public Economics

An older college professor like me
Duha T. Altindag, Samuel Cole, Elif S. Filiz
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Journal of the European Economic Association

Cost and Benefits of Climate Change Adaptation Policies: Evidence from an RCT and Extreme Flooding in Pakistan
Alexandra Avdeenko, Markus Frölich
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A significant component of the cost of climate change is the investment required for adaptation programs. Effective adaptation strategies are becoming essential for managing the negative economic impacts of climate change. In this study, we estimate climate change damage costs that incorporate adaptation costs and benefits under different environmental scenarios. Over a three-year period, we tracked households in rural Sindh, some of which experienced extreme monsoon flooding in 2016. We present how targeted climate adaptation measures can be effective in mitigating adverse climate effects and fostering resilience. Compared to a randomly selected control group, communities participating in a humanitarian aid preparedness program demonstrated significant improvements in food security and health outcomes after experiencing the negative weather shock. A cost-benefit analysis shows that the adaptation investments pay for themselves after a short period of time and have the potential to considerably reduce the social costs of carbon if a longer time horizon is considered. The paper contributes to the climate change literature by demonstrating how estimates from field experiments can be used to update the costs of climate change projections, while also highlighting the limitations of this approach.

The Quarterly Journal of Economics

Structural Estimation Under Misspecification: Theory and Implications for Practice
Isaiah Andrews, Nano Barahona, Matthew Gentzkow, Ashesh Rambachan, Jesse M Shapiro
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A researcher can use a tightly parameterized structural model to obtain internally consistent estimates of a wide range of economically interesting targets. We ask how reliable these estimates are when the researcher’s model may be misspecified. We focus on the case of multivariate, potentially nonlinear models where the causal variable of interest is endogenous. Reliable estimates require that the researcher’s model is flexible enough to describe the effects of the endogenous variable approximately correctly. Reliable estimates do not require that the researcher has correctly specified the role of the exogenous controls in the model. However, if the role of the controls is misspecified, reliable estimates require a property we call strong exclusion. Strong exclusion depends on having sufficiently many instruments that are unrelated to the controls. We discuss how practitioners can achieve strong exclusion, and illustrate our findings with an application to a differentiated goods model of demand for beer.

The Review of Economic Studies

Identification and Inference in First-Price Auctions with Risk Averse Bidders and Selective Entry
Xiaohong Chen, Matthew Gentry, Tong Li, Jingfeng Lu
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We study identification and inference in first-price auctions with risk averse bidders and selective entry, building on a flexible framework we call the Affiliated Signal with Risk Aversion (AS-RA) model. Assuming exogenous variation in either the number of potential bidders (N) or a continuous instrument (z) shifting opportunity costs of entry, we provide a sharp characterization of the nonparametric restrictions implied by equilibrium bidding. This characterization implies that risk neutrality is nonparametrically testable. In addition, with sufficient variation in both N and z, the AS-RA model primitives are nonparametrically identified (up to a bounded constant) on their equilibrium domains. Finally, we explore new methods for inference in set-identified auction models based on Chen, Christensen, and Tamer (2018), as well as novel and fast computational strategies using Mathematical Programming with Equilibrium Constraints. Simulation studies reveal good finite-sample performance of our inference methods, which can readily be adapted to other set-identified flexible equilibrium models with parameter dependent support.