We checked 17 economics journals on Friday, December 06, 2024 using the Crossref API. For the period November 29 to December 05, we retrieved 37 new paper(s) in 6 journal(s).

American Economic Review

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The Real State: Inside the Congo’s Traffic Police Agency
Raúl Sánchez de la Sierra, Kristof Titeca, Haoyang (Stan) Xie, Aimable Amani Lameke, Albert Jolino Malukisa
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This paper provides insight into a corruption scheme in Kinshasa’s traffic police agency. First, various data collection branches show that the agency’s revenue is five times that from fines and is derived from a coalition of traffic police officials, their managers, and judicial police officers scheming to extort drivers. Second, the analysis of an experiment suggests that the scheme subverts service. Third, the scheme appears to be a rational response to the context, but its logic is widespread. The findings suggest that coalitions of officials, while being socially costly, can yield large illicit revenue, nuancing the notion of state weakness. (JEL D73, H76, K42, O17)
Bias and Sensitivity under Ambiguity
Zhen Huo, Marcelo Pedroni, Guangyu Pei
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This paper characterizes the effects of ambiguity aversion under dispersed information. The equilibrium outcome is observationally equivalent to a Bayesian forecast of the fundamental with increased sensitivity to signals and a pessimistic bias. This equivalence result takes a simple form that accommodates dynamic information and strategic interactions. Applying the result, we show that ambiguity aversion helps rationalize the joint empirical pattern between the bias and persistence of inflation forecasts conditional on household income. In a policy game Ă  la Barro and Gordon (1983) with ambiguity-averse agents, the policy rule features higher average inflation and increased responsiveness to fundamentals. (JEL D81, D83, E31, E37, E71)
Beliefs in Repeated Games: An Experiment
Masaki Aoyagi, Guillaume R. Fréchette, Sevgi Yuksel
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This paper uses a laboratory experiment to study beliefs and their relationship to action and strategy choices in finitely and indefinitely repeated prisoners’ dilemma games. We find subjects’ elicited beliefs about the other player’s action are generally accurate despite some systematic deviations, and anticipate the evolution of behavior differently between the finite and indefinite games. We also use the elicited beliefs over actions to recover beliefs over supergame strategies played by the other player. We find these beliefs over strategies correctly capture the different classes of strategies played in each game, vary substantially across subjects, and rationalize their strategies. (JEL C72, C73, C92, D83)
Aiming for the Goal: Contribution Dynamics of Crowdfunding
Joyee Deb, Aniko Ă–ry, Kevin R. Williams
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We study a dynamic contribution game where investors seek private benefits offered in exchange for contributions, and a single, publicly minded donor values project success. We show that donor contributions serve as costly signals that encourage socially productive contributions by investors who face a coordination problem. Investors and the donor prefer different equilibria, but all benefit in expectation from the donor’s ability to dynamically signal his valuation. We explore various contexts in which our model can be applied and delve empirically into the case of Kickstarter. We calibrate our model and quantify the coordination benefits of dynamic signaling in counterfactuals. (JEL C73, D26, D82, G32, L26, M13)
Loans for the “Little Fellow”: Credit, Crisis, and Recovery in the Great Depression
Sarah Quincy
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This paper identifies how bank branching benefited local economies during the Great Depression. Using archival data and narrative evidence, I show how Bank of America’s branch network in 1930s California created an internal capital market that diversified away local liquidity shortfalls, allowing the bank to maintain 49 percent higher credit growth from 1929 to 1933 than competing banks. The bank’s presence mitigated cites’ property value contractions and strengthened their recovery through 1940. Linked individual data show that the bank’s proximity to workers hastened the transition from agricultural employment to human-capital–intensive sectors in the 1930s, generating structural change and higher wages. (JEL E32, G01, G21, N12, N22, N92, R23)
Decisions under Risk Are Decisions under Complexity
Ryan Oprea
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We provide evidence that classic lottery anomalies like probability weighting and loss aversion are not special phenomena of risk. They also arise (and often with equal strength) when subjects evaluate deterministic, positive monetary payments that have been disaggregated to resemble lotteries. Thus, we find, e.g., apparent probability weighting in settings without probabilities and loss aversion in settings without scope for loss. Across subjects, anomalies in these deterministic tasks strongly predict the same anomalies in lotteries. These findings suggest that much of the behavior motivating our most important behavioral theories of risk derive from complexity-driven mistakes rather than true risk preferences. (JEL C91, D44, D81, D91)
Curbing Leakage in Public Programs: Evidence from India’s Direct Benefit Transfer Policy
Prabhat Barnwal
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Targeted price subsidies create a gap between subsidized and unsubsidized prices. The resulting dual pricing can lead to arbitrage opportunities where intermediaries divert subsidized goods to unintended beneficiaries via the black market. I study India’s Direct Benefit Transfer policy for cooking fuel subsidies, which altered the existing subsidy program by transferring subsidies directly to beneficiaries’ bank accounts. The policy decreased subsidized fuel purchases, indicating a reduction in diversion to the black market. Changes in unsubsidized fuel sales and black market prices provide supporting evidence that leakage was reduced. These results suggest that addressing the underlying perverse incentives in welfare delivery can improve efficiency by curbing leakages. (JEL D73, I38, O17, Q41, Q48)
Political Correctness, Social Image, and Information Transmission
Luca Braghieri
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A prominent argument in the political correctness debate is that people feel pressure to publicly espouse sociopolitical views they do not privately hold, and that such misrepresentations might render public discourse less vibrant and informative. This paper formalizes the argument in terms of social image and evaluates it experimentally in the context of college campuses. The results show that (i) social image concerns drive a wedge between the sensitive sociopolitical attitudes that college students report in private and in public; (ii) public utterances are indeed less informative than private utterances; and (iii) information loss is exacerbated by (partial) audience naïveté. (JEL D72, D83, D91, I23, Z13)
Measuring Science: Performance Metrics and the Allocation of Talent
Sebastian Hager, Carlo Schwarz, Fabian Waldinger
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We study how performance metrics affect the allocation of talent by exploiting the introduction of the first citation database in science. For technical reasons, it only covered citations from certain journals and years, creating quasi-random variation: some citations became visible, while others remained invisible. We identify the effects of citation metrics by comparing the predictiveness of visible to invisible citations. Citation metrics increased assortative matching between scientists and departments by reducing information frictions over geographic and intellectual distance. Highly cited scientists from lower-ranked departments (“hidden stars”) and from minorities benefited more. Citation metrics also affected promotions and NSF grants, suggesting Matthew effects. (JEL A14, I23, J44)
Contamination Bias in Linear Regressions
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham, Peter Hull, Michal Kolesár
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We study regressions with multiple treatments and a set of controls that is flexible enough to purge omitted variable bias. We show these regressions generally fail to estimate convex averages of heterogeneous treatment effects—instead, estimates of each treatment’s effect are contaminated by nonconvex averages of the effects of other treatments. We discuss three estimation approaches that avoid such contamination bias, including the targeting of easiest-to-estimate weighted average effects. A reanalysis of nine empirical applications finds economically and statistically meaningful contamination bias in observational studies; contamination bias in experimental studies is more limited due to smaller variability in propensity scores. (JEL C21, C31, C51, H75, I21, I28)

European Economic Review

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Faster bank runs
Oz Shy
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Global public goods, fiscal policy coordination, and welfare in the world economy
Pierre-Richard Agénor, Luiz A. Pereira da Silva
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Time-varying stock return correlation, news shocks, and business cycles
Norbert Metiu, Esteban Prieto
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Journal of Econometrics

Long-run risk in stationary vector autoregressive models
Christian Gourieroux, Joann Jasiak
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Estimating high dimensional monotone index models by iterative convex optimization
Shakeeb Khan, Xiaoying Lan, Elie Tamer, Qingsong Yao
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Journal of Political Economy

The Bank of Amsterdam and the Limits of Fiat Money
Wilko Bolt, Jon Frost, Hyun Song Shin, Peter Wierts
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Occupational Choice, Matching, and Earnings Inequality
Eric Mak, Aloysius Siow
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Heterogeneity and Aggregate Fluctuations
Minsu Chang, Xiaohong Chen, Frank Schorfheide
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Not a Flying Start after All? A Comment
Otto Sevaldson Lillebø, Simen Markussen, Knut Røed, Yuejun Zhao
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The Intertemporal Keynesian Cross
Adrien Auclert, Matthew Rognlie, Ludwig Straub
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(Near-)Substitute Preferences and Equilibria with Indivisibilities
ThĂ nh Nguyen, Rakesh Vohra
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Detecting Drivers of Behavior at an Early Age: Evidence from a Longitudinal Field Experiment
Marco Castillo, John A. List, Ragan Petrie, Anya Samek
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Disequilibrium Play in Tennis
Axel Anderson, Jeremy Rosen, John Rust, Kin-Ping Wong
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The Impact of Divorce Laws on the Equilibrium in the Marriage Market
Ana Reynoso
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Selective-Memory Equilibrium
Drew Fudenberg, Giacomo Lanzani, Philipp Strack
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Still Flying: Reply to “Not a Flying Start after All?” by Lillebø et al.
Pedro Carneiro, Katrine Løken, Kjell G. Salvanes
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Journal of Public Economics

When weather wounds workers: The impact of temperature on workplace accidents
Katharina Drescher, Benedikt Janzen
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Populism and ideological convergence: Evidence from a multiparty system
Tuuli Tähtinen
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All is not lost: Organized crime and social capital formation
Paolo Buonanno, Irene Ferrari, Alessandro Saia
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From viewers to voters: Tracing Fox News’ impact on American democracy
Elliott Ash, Sergio Galletta, Matteo Pinna, Christopher S. Warshaw
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Place-based policies, structural change and female labor: Evidence from India’s Special Economic Zones
Johannes Gallé, Daniel Overbeck, Nadine Riedel, Tobias Seidel
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Who truly bears (bank) taxes? Evidence from only shifting statutory incidence
Gabriel Jiménez, David Martinez-Miera, José-Luis Peydró
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The effects of lump-sum food benefits during the COVID-19 pandemic on spending, hardship, and health
Lauren Bauer, Krista Ruffini, Diane Whitmore Schanzenbach
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Misperceived effectiveness and the demand for psychotherapy
Christopher Roth, Peter Schwardmann, Egon Tripodi
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The scale and nature of neighborhood effects on children
Stephen B. Billings, Mark Hoekstra, Gabriel Pons Rotger
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Laffer’s day in court: The revenue effects of criminal justice fees and fines
Samuel Norris, Evan K. Rose
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The Quarterly Journal of Economics

The Global Race for Talent: Brain Drain, Knowledge Transfer, and Growth
Marta Prato
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How does inventors’ migration affect international talent allocation, knowledge diffusion, and productivity growth? To answer this question, I build a novel two-country innovation-led endogenous growth model, where heterogeneous inventors produce innovations, learn from others, and make dynamic migration and return decisions. Migrants interact with individuals at origin and destination, diffusing knowledge within and across countries. To quantify this framework, I construct a micro-level dataset of migrant inventors on the US-EU corridor from patent data and document that (i) gross migration is asymmetric, with brain drain (net emigration) from the EU to the US; (ii) migrants increase their patenting by 33% per year after migration; (iii) migrants continue working with inventors at origin after moving, although less frequently; (iv) migrants’ productivity gains spill over to their collaborators at origin, who increase patenting by 16% per year when a co-inventor emigrates. I calibrate the model to match the empirical results and study the impact of innovation and migration policy. A tax cut for foreigners and return migrants in the EU that eliminates the brain drain increases EU innovation but lowers US innovation and knowledge spillovers. The former effect dominates in the first 25 years, increasing EU productivity growth by 3%, but the latter dominates in the long-run, lowering growth by 3%. On the migration policy side, doubling the size of the US H1B visa program increases US and EU growth by 4% in the long-run, because it sorts inventors to where they produce more innovations and knowledge spillovers.