We checked 31 political science journals on Friday, December 19, 2025 using the Crossref API. For the period December 12 to December 18, we retrieved 78 new paper(s) in 15 journal(s).

American Political Science Review

Mapping the Political Contours of the Regulatory State: Dynamic Estimates of Agency Ideal Points
ALEX ACS
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This article introduces a novel empirical method for estimating the ideological orientations of U.S. regulatory agencies across different presidential administrations. Employing a measurement model based on item response theory and analyzing data on planned regulations from the Unified Agenda and the president’s discretionary review of those regulations, as implemented by the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs, the study provides dynamic estimates of agency ideal points from the Clinton through the Trump administrations. The model uses NOMINATE ideal points of presidents to link the estimated agency ideal points to legislative ideal points. The resulting estimates correlate positively with existing measures of agency ideology, highlight controversial regulators, and demonstrate that agency ideologies shift over time due to emerging issues that divide the parties. The study also finds that agencies located ideologically closer to the president are more productive, as evidenced by their regulatory output.

British Journal of Political Science

Quality Not Quantity: How a VAA Affected Voting Behavior in Three Large-Scale Field Experiments
Joris Frese, Simon Hix, Romain Lachat
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Voting-advice applications (VAAs) are increasingly popular, but their impact on electoral outcomes is contested among political scientists. To bring new and stronger evidence to this debate, we conducted a series of pre-registered studies during the 2024 European Parliament elections in Germany, Italy, and France. In this paper, we report results for the highest-powered VAA encouragement experiment to date (total n = 6,501) and a novel regression discontinuity design around VAA recommendation thresholds ( n = 10,535). While we observe null effects of VAA usage on voter turnout, the frequency of vote switching, and political knowledge, we find that our VAAs significantly improved the quality of vote switching: users were more likely to vote for their ideologically most aligned party. Based on these findings and a rich battery of supplementary analyses, we conclude that VAAs are effective precisely for their intended purpose: to help voters make better-informed vote choices.
Race, Gender, and Nascent Political Ambition
Andrea Junqueira, Diana Z. O’Brien, Matthew Hayes, Jongwoo Jeong, Brian Crisp, Matthew Gabel
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How do race and gender together shape Americans’ political ambition? Using original survey data with over-samples of black and Hispanic respondents, we analyze citizens’ nascent ambition for eight political offices across racial/ethnic groups and gender. We reveal that the primary gap in nascent political ambition is not between men and women but between white men and the majority of the polity. There is no consistent gender gap in ambition among black or Hispanic respondents, nor between black and Hispanic men and white women. The gap between white men and other respondents is most pronounced for local offices, which mark both the starting point and final stage of many political careers. Our findings further indicate that while white men are particularly responsive to encouragement from non-political sources, ambition gaps narrow among respondents encouraged by political actors. Together, these insights help explain the persistence of white men’s overrepresentation in US politics.
Parties’ Ideological Cores and Peripheries: Examining How Parties Balance Adaptation and Continuity in Their Manifestos
Annika Werner, Fabian Habersack
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How do political parties balance policy adaptation with ideological continuity? While spatial models emphasise external factors driving party behaviour, less attention has been given to internal party choices. This article innovates by proposing that parties differentiate between and make distinct strategical decisions regarding their ideological core and peripheral policy areas. We argue that parties maintain continuity in their ideological core while exhibiting greater flexibility in modifying their periphery. Using the Manifesto Project Corpus and an XLM-RoBERTa-based language model, we analyse manifesto sections to distinguish core from peripheral segments. Our findings show that parties take clearer stances in their ideological core while adapting their periphery more flexibly, with niche parties displaying this pattern more strongly than mainstream parties. Electoral setbacks lead parties to adopt more extreme peripheries, while cores remain stable. These results highlight the strategic importance of the core–periphery distinction in party communication and suggest that studies of party competition should consider where policy shifts occur within parties’ electoral programmes.
Gendered Political Contexts, Emotions, and Engagement: A Case Study of the 2016 US Presidential Election
Stephanie L. DeMora, Jennifer L. Merolla, Maricruz Ariana Osorio, Christian Lindke, Sean Long
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The 2016 election serves as an important case study in understanding how gendered political contexts can shape emotional reactions and engagement, particularly among women. Two important features of that election, Trump’s treatment of women and Clinton’s historic run for office, influenced emotional reactions to politics in distinct ways. We used two experimental designs in which participants were randomly assigned to read vignettes about Trump’s treatment of women or Clinton’s historic run for office. Reading about the former led to higher anger, especially among Democratic women and men, while reading about the latter increased enthusiasm among highly educated women. These elevated emotions increased intended future engagement. We conducted a third study in which we induced anger about Trump’s treatment of women and found that it led to greater intended engagement.

Comparative Politics

Why Are State-Business Relations Formalized in Russia’s Authoritarian Regime? A Set-Theoretic Analysis
Benedikt Bender, Katharina Bluhm, Stanislav Klimovich, Sabine Kropp, Ulla Pape, Claudius Wagemann
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Despite the predominance of informality in Russian state-business relations (SBRs), regional administrations have established diverse institutionalized forms of cooperation with business actors. These include socio-economic development agreements, public-private partnerships, and consultation mechanisms. Utilizing fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA), this study systematically examines SBRs across all of Russia’s federal subjects, identifying varying degrees of institutionalization. The findings reveal that strongly institutionalized SBRs, found in fifty-nine out of eighty-three regions, result from four distinct configurations: a monopolistic economy, hegemonic authoritarian politics, personalist politics, and competitive authoritarian politics. The analysis demonstrates that institutionalized SBRs are beneficial for both business and state actors. It offers valuable insights into the rationale behind the formation of formal cooperation between state and businesses, thereby addressing key questions in comparative research on authoritarianism.
Emotional Contagion and Labor Mobilization in an Autocracy
Olena Nikolayenko
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Labor unrest has become a salient feature of contentious politics around the globe. Yet, scholars disagree over the determinants of labor’s rise against the ruling elite in non-democracies. This article argues that emotional contagion explains a short-term spike in labor mobilization. Drawing on empirical evidence from Belarus, one of the most repressive political regimes in contemporary Europe, the study provides support for the argument. Utilizing original data from in-depth interviews with labor activists and industrial workers, empirical analysis demonstrates that a shared sense of outrage over the scale of police violence, along with the magnitude of electoral malpractices and the government’s neglect of citizens’ needs during a public health crisis, was a major catalyst for labor mobilization in the aftermath of the 2020 presidential election.

European Journal of Political Research

Populism and governmentalism as thin-centered ideologies: Emotions and frames on social media
Giuliano Formisano, Jörg Friedrichs, Florian S. Schaffner, Niklas Stoehr
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No existing model of political rhetoric fully captures the complex interplay between the mainstream-populism divide and appealing to emotions like fear and anger. We present a new conceptualization and procedure that defines populism in relation to governmentalism, operationalizes both through communication frames, and allows for the analysis of emotions. We separate governmentalist-populist contestation from contestation between government and opposition, solving a longstanding theoretical and empirical problem. Analyzing one million tweets by politicians and their audiences, we fine-tune and employ supervised machine learning (transformer models) to classify populist and governmentalist communication. We find that populist tweets appeal more to anger and more to fear than governmentalist tweets. While we deploy our approach for tweets about Coronavirus in the UK, the procedure is transferable to other contexts and communication platforms.
Judicial review and territorial conflicts: Evidence from Spain
Joan-Josep Vallbé, Daniel Cetrà, Marc Sanjaume-Calvet
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Constitutional courts (CCs) in federal and quasi-federal systems are often expected to act as neutral arbiters in conflicts between levels of government. This article challenges that assumption by analysing the behavior of Spain’s Constitutional Court over four decades of constitutional litigation. Drawing on an original dataset of 1,888 rulings on all challenges to national and regional legislation (1981–2023), we examine how judicial outcomes are shaped by political alignment, institutional design, and court ideology. Our analysis reveals a consistent pattern of deference to the central government, especially when the Court is ideologically conservative or aligned with the federal executive. These results support a strategic model of judicial behavior and raise broader questions about the role of CCs in multilevel systems. Rather than acting as counter-majoritarian forces, courts may reinforce central dominance in center–periphery conflicts, limiting their capacity to protect territorial pluralism in practice.

Journal of Theoretical Politics

The Blackstone ratio, modified
Murat C Mungan
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In his discussion of evidentiary policies, Blackstone famously noted that ‘it is better that ten guilty persons escape than that one innocent suffer’ (Blackstone 1769). The conventional wisdom among lawyers, judges as well as academics holds that accepting this statement as a maxim necessitates the adoption of pro-defendant evidentiary rules. It is also commonly believed that costs associated with false convictions being greater than those associated with failures to punish offenders due to the presence of punishment costs provides a utilitarian rationale for Blackstonian principles. After formalizing Blackstone ratios (either as marginal rates of substitution or, alternatively, as the ratio between quantities of errors), I show these conventional views are incorrect. I then propose a simple modification of the Blackstone ratio, which shifts the focus from aggregate outcomes to consequences for individuals within the criminal justice system. This modification better aligns commonly held views about the Blackstone ratio with its actual implications and justifications.

Legislative Studies Quarterly

Who Shows Up? Legislative Attendance by Electoral Seat Type in Bangladesh and Pakistan
Dipak Kumar Biswas, Erik S. Herron
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Institutional mechanisms, like reserved seats, aim to enhance representation for underrepresented groups, including women and minorities. Yet little is known about whether legislators elected through these seats engage in legislative work at comparable levels to their peers elected through general seats. We examine legislative attendance—an observable form of engagement—in Bangladesh and Pakistan, two hybrid regimes with Westminster‐derived institutions. Drawing on theories of electoral incentives, institutional weakness, and competing principals, we argue that reserved‐seat legislators seek visibility during sessions to build reputations. Lacking independent electoral mandates and relying on party elites for nomination, they demonstrate loyalty and diligence through observable participation. Using an original dataset of attendance records and elite interviews, we find that reserved‐seat legislators attend plenary sessions more often than general‐seat legislators, even after controlling for demographic and institutional factors. These findings suggest that reserved seats, often criticized as symbolic, can generate strong incentives for visible participation. This study highlights how institutional pathways influence legislative behavior and contribute to comparative research on representation in non‐Western contexts.
Boosted and Branded: Congressional Advertising With Constituents
Stephanie Davis, Annelise Russell
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Members of Congress have an unprecedented number of ways to communicate with constituents, and this article examines the evolving strategies of representation by focusing on how members use paid advertising to engage with their districts. Prior research offers competing explanations for lawmakers' communication strategies—one ascribed to asymmetric patterns of partisan politics and another to electoral constraints. Drawing on a dataset of franked communications by House members from 2018 to 2024, we investigate the factors driving variation in these representation investments. Our findings reveal distinct patterns in paid advertising, with junior lawmakers and electorally vulnerable members investing in constituent outreach. Additionally, the composition of franked communication has changed over time as digital advertising and SMS outreach have become primary tools for constituent communications. By integrating insights from prior research on electoral security and tenure, this study highlights the diversification of congressional communication methods and the asymmetric dynamics shaping their use. Ultimately, this analysis provides new perspectives on how Congress adapts its communication strategies to navigate the challenges of representation in a rapidly changing technological landscape.
The Quality of Bipartisan Legislation
Liam Bethlendy
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Do good (i.e., welfare‐improving) policies receive bipartisan support? I develop a formal model where the quality of bipartisan legislation is conditional on voter perceptions of party competence. If voters infer that bills with bipartisan support are good bills and reelect the majority party for passing such legislation, then minority parties may have an incentive to oppose good bills to make the majority look bad. However, if voters believe only an incompetent minority party opposes the majority party's bills regardless of quality, then a strategic minority may support even bad bills. The minority party supports good bills and opposes bad bills only when the majority party has a large reputation advantage (i.e., when the majority party is more popular with voters). In an extension, I show that the majority may purposefully introduce bad bills. We can infer little about the quality of bipartisan legislation without considering party reputation concerns.
Legislative Control and Partisan Disparities in Dyadic Representation
Daniel Butler, Zoe Nemerever, Steven Rogers
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Prior work finds that U.S. legislators often misrepresent their constituents' preferences, with politicians often siding with their party over their own constituents' preferences. To explain this misrepresentation, district‐level characteristics receive more attention than what happens within the legislature. We argue that insights about legislative leadership can help us understand the conditions under which politicians may vote against their constituents' preferences. We investigate how partisan control of the legislative chamber affects state legislators' voting behavior using district‐level returns on veto‐referendum ballot initiatives. Our analyses reveal differences in dyadic representation based on which party controls the legislative chamber. When Republicans control the chamber, they allow their members to face more cross‐pressured votes, partially explaining why Republicans are more prone to voting against constituents' preferences. Our results demonstrate the need to better understand the role of party leaders in shaping partisan differences in the quality of representation.
Shared Pain, Common Purpose: How Shared Problem Status Drives Congressional Collaboration on Opioid Legislation
Robert J. McGrath
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Why do members of Congress collaborate on legislation in an era of intense partisan polarization? This paper argues that shared exposure to pressing, district‐level policy problems can motivate cross‐party collaboration, particularly in a policy area that cuts across traditional ideological divides. Focusing on the case of the opioid crisis, I develop the importance of shared problem status in driving cosponsorship of opioid‐related legislation. That is, when legislators represent similarly affected constituencies, they are more likely to cosponsor opioid‐related legislation, even when they differ in party or ideology. While existing research often treats cosponsorship as a function of social networks or institutional proximity, there are clear incentives for members to respond to issue areas that reflect local problem severity. Using dyadic data on bill cosponsorship in the House and Senate from portions of the 112th through the 116th congresses (2012–2019), I find that member pairs with each legislator representing districts with high opioid death rates are significantly more likely to collaborate on opioid legislation. These findings suggest that geographically distributed policy crises can open space for bipartisan cooperation, even in an otherwise gridlocked Congress.

Perspectives on Politics

Generic title: Not a research article
PPS volume 23 issue 4 Cover and Front matter
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PPS volume 23 issue 4 Cover and Back matter
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Everyone’s Business: What Companies Owe Society. By Amit Ron and Abraham A. Singer. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press, 2024. 264p.
Pierre-Yves Néron
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Response to Leslie Butler’s Review of Refounding Democracy through Intersectional Activism: How Progressive Era Feminists Redefined Who We Are, and What It Means Today
Wendy Sarvasy
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Review Index
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Response to Geneviùve Rousseliùre’s Review of Regenerative Politics
Emma Planinc
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Depletion: The Human Costs of Caring
Christopher Paul Harris
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Depletion: The Human Costs of Caring - Depletion: The Human Cost of Caring. By Shirin Rai. New York: Oxford University Press, 2024. 292p.
Catherine Rottenberg
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If We Were Kin: Race, Identification, and Intimate Appeals. By Lisa Beard. New York: Oxford University Press, 2023. 240p.
Juliet Hooker
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Response to Juliet Hooker’s Review of If We Were Kin: Race, Identification, and Intimate Political Appeals
Lisa Beard
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Erased: A History of International Thought Without Men
Laura Sjoberg
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Response to Karie Cross Riddle’s Review of Fixing Gender: The Paradoxical Politics of Training Peacekeepers
Aiko Holvikivi
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Note from the Editors
Ana Arjona, Wendy Pearlman
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Response to Francesca Scrinzi’s Review of Beyond Left, Right, and Center
Christina Xydias
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Response to Roxani Krystalli’s Review of Wronged: The Weaponization of Victimhood
Lilie Chouliaraki
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Seeing Like a Firm: Social Justice, Corporations, and the Conservative Order. By Pierre-Yves Néron. New York: Oxford University Press, 2024. 280p.
Amit Ron, Abraham Singer
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Response to Wendy Sarvasy’s Review of Consistent Democracy: The ‘Woman Question’ and Self-Government in Nineteenth-Century America
Leslie Butler
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Wronged: The Weaponization of Victimhood. By Lilie Chouliaraki. New York: Columbia University Press, 2024. 245p.
Roxani Krystalli
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Depletion: The Human Costs of Caring
Rachel H. Brown
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Response to Aiko Holvikivi’s Review of Critical Feminist Justpeace: Grounding Theory in Grassroots Praxis
Karie Riddle
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Response to Emma Planinc’s Review of Sharing Freedom: Republicanism and Exclusion in Revolutionary France
GeneviĂšve RousseliĂšre
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Erased: A History of International Thought Without Men
Peter Marcus Kristensen
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Gender, Sexuality and the Politics of Positionality in Political Science
Sarah Bufkin, Anne Wolf, Kathrin Bachleitner
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Erased: A History of International Thought Without Men
Shruti Balaji
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Response to Lisa Beard’s Review of Black Grief/White Grievance: The Politics of Loss
Juliet Hooker
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Erased: A History of International Thought Without Men - Erased: A History of International Thought Without Men. By Patricia Owens. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2025. 409p.
Sandra Whitworth
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Erased: A History of International Thought Without Men
Brooke A. Ackerly
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Regenerative Politics. By Emma Planinc. New York: Columbia University Press, 2024. 264p.
GeneviĂšve RousseliĂšre
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Sharing Freedom: Republicanism and Exclusion in Revolutionary France. By GeneviĂšve RousseliĂšre. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2024. 268p.
Emma Planinc
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Beyond Left, Right, and Center: The Politics of Gender and Ethnicity in Contemporary Germany. By Christina Xydias. Philadelphia: Temple University Press, 2024. 254p.
Francesca Scrinzi
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Response to Lilie Chouliaraki’s Review of Good Victims: The Political as a Feminist Question
Roxani Krystalli
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Consistent Democracy: The ‘Woman Question’ and Self-Government in Nineteenth-Century America. By Leslie Butler. New York: Oxford University Press, 2023. 320p.
Wendy Sarvasy
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Critical Feminist Justpeace: Grounding Theory in Grassroots Praxis. By Karie Cross Riddle. New York: Oxford University Press, 2024. 272p.
Aiko Holvikivi
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Good Victims: The Political as a Feminist Question. By Roxani Krystalli. New York: Oxford University Press, 2024. 272p.
Lilie Chouliaraki
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Refounding Democracy Through Intersectional Activism: How Progressive Era Feminists Redefined Who We Are, and What It Means Today. By Wendy Sarvasy. Philadelphia: Temple University Press, 2024. 314p.
Leslie Butler
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Erased: A History of International Thought Without Men
J. Ann Tickner
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Fixing Gender: The Paradoxical Politics of Training Peacekeepers. By Aiko Holvikivi. New York: Oxford University Press, 2024. 216p.
Karie Riddle
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Black Grief/White Grievance: The Politics of Loss. By Juliet Hooker. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2023. 360p.
Lisa Beard
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The Safety Net and the Gig Economy: Policy Attitudes and Political Participation
Juhyun Bae, Jake Haselswerdt
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The emergence of the so-called gig economy has reshaped the labor market and, potentially, the politics of the safety net. Much of the American welfare state is based on a traditional model of employment, excluding most gig workers from benefits like subsidized employer-provided health insurance and unemployment insurance. Despite these trends, there is little research on how these changes might affect politics. Are gig workers likely to become a relevant constituency on social welfare and other issues? To address this, we conducted a unique online survey examining policy attitudes and political behaviors among gig workers compared with traditional workers. Our findings indicate that people who view gig work as their “main job” tend to lack access to traditional social insurance and employer-provided benefits, as expected, and rely more on means-tested assistance programs (e.g., food stamps). Consequently, gig workers exhibit higher support than traditional workers for expanding social welfare programs, and are more engaged on issues that affect gig workers. In terms of participation, gig workers are less likely to vote but more likely to engage in nonvoting political activities like protest than traditional workers. This study contributes to the understanding of social welfare politics in the new era of the labor market and highlights a growing constituency for expanding the safety net.
Erased: A History of International Thought Without Men
Jenna Marshall
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Response to Pierre-Yves NĂ©ron’s Review of Everyone’s Business: What Companies Owe Society
Abraham Singer, Amit Ron
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The Resilience of Multiculturalism: Ideas, Politics, Practice – Essays in Honour of Tariq Modood. By Thomas Sealy, Varun Uberoi, and Nasar Meer, eds. Edinburgh: Edinburgh University Press, 2024. 308p.
Christopher Hill
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Response to Amit Ron and Abraham A. Singer’s Review of Seeing Like a Firm: Social Justice, Corporations, and the Conservative Order
Pierre-Yves Néron
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The Racialization of Sexism: Men, Women, and Gender in the Populist Radical Right. By Francesca Scrinzi. New York: Routledge, 2024. 214p.
Christina Xydias
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Response to Christina Xydias’s review of The Racialization of Sexism
Francesca Scrinzi
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Political Analysis

Stay Tuned: Improving Sentiment Analysis and Stance Detection Using Large Language Models
Max Griswold, Michael W. Robbins, Michael S. Pollard
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Sentiment analysis and stance detection are key tasks in text analysis, with applications ranging from understanding political opinions to tracking policy positions. Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) offer significant potential to enhance sentiment analysis techniques and to evolve them into the more nuanced task of detecting stances expressed toward specific subjects. In this study, we evaluate lexicon-based models, supervised models, and LLMs for stance detection using two corpuses of social media data—a large corpus of tweets posted by members of the U.S. Congress on Twitter and a smaller sample of tweets from general users—which both focus on opinions concerning presidential candidates during the 2020 election. We consider several fine-tuning strategies to improve performance—including cross-target tuning using an assumption of congressmembers’ stance based on party affiliation—and strategies for fine-tuning LLMs, including few shot and chain-of-thought prompting. Our findings demonstrate that: 1) LLMs can distinguish stance on a specific target even when multiple subjects are mentioned, 2) tuning leads to notable improvements over pretrained models, 3) cross-target tuning can provide a viable alternative to in-target tuning in some settings, and 4) complex prompting strategies lead to improvements over pretrained models but underperform tuning approaches.
Political DEBATE: Efficient Zero-Shot and Few-Shot Classifiers for Political Text
Michael Burnham, Kayla Kahn, Ryan Yang Wang, Rachel X. Peng
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Social scientists have quickly adopted large language models (LLMs) for their ability to annotate documents without supervised training, an ability known as zero-shot classification. However, due to their computational demands, cost, and often proprietary nature, these models are frequently at odds with open science standards. This article introduces the Political Domain Enhanced BERT-based Algorithm for Textual Entailment (DEBATE) language models: Foundation models for zero-shot, few-shot, and supervised classification of political documents. As zero-shot classifiers, the models are designed to be used for common, well-defined tasks, such as topic and opinion classification. When used in this context, the DEBATE models are not only as good as state-of-the-art LLMs at zero-shot classification, but are orders of magnitude more efficient and completely open source. We further demonstrate that the models are effective few-shot learners. With a simple random sample of 10–25 documents, they can outperform supervised classifiers trained on hundreds or thousands of documents and state-of-the-art generative models. Additionally, we release the PolNLI dataset used to train these models—a corpus of over 200,000 political documents with highly accurate labels across over 800 classification tasks.

Political Geography

Polish geopolitical vertigo: Grassroots popular geopolitics meets right-wing populism
Anna Wojciuk, Tomasz PawƂuszko
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Decolonising animal activism: engaging with Indigenous activist perspectives
Esther Tordjmann, Nicole T Cook
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Amplifying vulnerability: State policy and the consolidation of a migratory chokepoint on Mexico's southern border
Miguel Paradela LĂłpez, Charles Larratt-Smith
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Review forum
Somdeep Sen, Debbie Lisle, Naji Safadi, Lana Tatour, Rhys Machold
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Political Psychology

How leading climate movement advocates perceive collective gridlock in social change advocacy
Janquel D. Acevedo, Ava Disney, Kelly S. Fielding, Catherine E. Amiot, Matthew J. Hornsey, Fathali M. Moghaddam, Emma F. Thomas, Stewart Sutherland, Susilo Wibisono, Winnifred R. Louis
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Despite mass mobilization efforts, most countries are failing to meet their internationally agreed 2030 goals to mitigate climate change, representing a failure of the climate movement to achieve their key aspirations. Most research on failure and collective action examines one‐off failures but does not address lasting failure. We conceptualize this ongoing failure as collective gridlock: times in social change advocacy where insufficient progress is caused by antagonistic intergroup stalemates, preventing groups from achieving shared goals and addressing joint problems. We used semi‐structured interviews with climate movement leaders ( N = 28) to explore collective gridlock and the processes that may be associated with it. Most advocates believed they were in gridlock as they perceived insufficient progress toward their movement's goals. Evidence for the proposed processes of attrition, group norms of purity and intransigence, moral conviction, hostility toward the outgroup, radicalization, and perceived counter‐mobilization emerged in the interviews. Contrary to expectations, climate movement leaders also reported a need to build coalitions and compromise, and they also discussed negative well‐being as an outcome of collective gridlock. The current study contributes to our understanding of persistent failure in the climate movement and its implications for social change advocacy.

Political Science Research and Methods

How voters respond to economic shocks from abroad
Costin Ciobanu, Joost van Spanje
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Research on economic voting shows that negative economic events typically reduce government support. However, we argue that external economic shocks may have the opposite effect: when faced with a foreign economic threat, voters will rally behind their government despite worsening economic perceptions. Using the unexpected collapse of Lehman Brothers (15 September 2008) as a case, we analyze European Social Survey data from six countries and find that while satisfaction with national economies declined, satisfaction with governments gradually rose. We document that rising media and political attention coincided with a rally effect fueled by past opposition voters and muted opposition elites. These findings demonstrate that foreign economic shocks influence democratic accountability and the ability of governments to act during hard times.
Participatory unilateralism: understanding Congress’s role in presidential unilateral policymaking
Annie Benn
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Recent scholarship highlights that executive orders issued by the president are not truly ‘unilateral,’ but require cooperation from administrative agencies for implementation. I argue that, because of this role for agencies, congressional committees can use oversight to shape executive order implementation. I demonstrate this dynamic using two datasets: a sample of executive orders that have been coded using measures of executive-branch delegation and discretion, and a collection of congressional hearings focusing on an executive order or its implementation. I find that Congress engages in more oversight activity when an order delegates more authority and a wider discretionary window to agencies. This finding reveals a previously overlooked form of interbranch conflict, and broadens our understanding of the politics of unilateralism.

PS: Political Science & Politics

Generic title: Not a research article
State Strikes Back: The Spanish–Moroccan Border Crisis from the Lens of the Beirut School of Critical Security Studies – ERRATUM
Zaynab El Bernoussi, Augusto DelkĂĄder-Palacios
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Contingent Confidence: The Effect of the 2024 Election Outcome on Public and Elite Confidence in National Elections
Joshua D. Clinton
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Using a rolling cross-section survey of 54,000 voters conducted between mid-October and mid-December, a panel survey of 6,000 voters interviewed in both October and December, and surveys of 1,400 local political elites and officials conducted in both October and December, this study characterizes how confidence in the accuracy of national elections changed with the projected election of President Trump on Election Day. Among voters, Republican confidence immediately increased by 31 percentage points (123% change) and Democrats’ confidence declined by 12 percentage points (16% change) such that the confidence among partisan voters was almost identical by mid-December. The most polarized partisans exhibited the largest confidence changes. Among local political elites, the increase in Republicans’ confidence mirrored the increase among Republican voters (106% change), but the confidence among Democratic political elites remained high throughout. These findings highlight troubling concerns for sustaining a shared confidence in the accuracy and legitimacy of future elections.
Only in it for Power and Wealth? The Neglect of Policy-Seeking Motives among Dictators
Matilde Tofte Thorsen
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Contrary to the dominant literature on autocracies, this article argues and demonstrates that dictators, in addition to being office-seeking, often are driven by policy-seeking motivation—that is, broader beliefs and ideology. The empirical investigation enlists new original data, based on obituaries, about dictators’ political motives. The dataset contains information on 297 deceased dictators who held power at some point during the period 1945–2008. The results reveal that the dictators had a variety of different motives for being in power. Many were strongly ideologically motivated, several were primarily motivated by money and power ambitions, and others held power to create stability and democratize. Thus, dictators’ motives seem to be substantially more diverse than typically assumed, and the data make it possible to measure motivation. This is key to investigating the direct as well as the conditional impact on political dynamics in autocracies.
Forecasting the 2025 German Election: An Introduction
Bruno JérÎme, Andreas Graefe
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German federal elections have long drawn international attention due to the country’s economic influence and its pivotal role in the European Union. Over time, forecasting these elections has evolved into a sophisticated discipline, incorporating diverse models and refined methodologies to improve accuracy. Since 2013, PS: Political Science & Politics has played a key role in tracking these developments by publishing three special symposia dedicated to forecasting German elections (JĂ©rĂŽme 2013, 2017; JĂ©rĂŽme and Graefe 2022). This 2025 symposium marks the fourth installment, continuing a tradition of providing scholars with a platform to share insights and reflect on the field’s ongoing expansion.
Mobilizing Fear in the 2023 Polish General Elections: Immigration Anxiety as a Populist Strategy for Re-election
Magdalena MusiaƂ-Karg, Fernando Casal BĂ©rtoa
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This article analyzes how Poland’s Law and Justice (PiS) weaponized migration anxiety as a populist strategy during the 2023 general elections. Using a comparative qualitative case-study approach (George and Bennett 2005), the article examines how PiS leveraged anti-immigration rhetoric to mobilize voters, deepen social polarization, and legitimize its governance. The study draws comparisons with Hungary’s 2016 referendum on European Union (EU) refugee quotas to explore how populist governments in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) use fear-based narratives to consolidate power. It also demonstrates how PiS emulated Viktor Orbán’s 2022 strategy of holding a referendum alongside parliamentary elections to retain power. The study finds that PiS framed migration as an existential threat, using the referendum as a tool to divert attention from democratic backsliding. This strategy mirrored Orbán’s use of anti-immigration campaigns to strengthen his electoral support and resist EU pressures. By expanding on the concept of “populist polarizing referendum,” the study contributes to research on populist electoral strategies, institutional manipulation, and the role of migration-related fear in political mobilization. It highlights the broader implications of such tactics for democracy and governance in the CEE region, demonstrating how populist leaders instrumentalize migration crises to sustain electoral dominance.

Public Choice

Meritocracy and its discontents
Steven N. Durlauf
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This paper explores the justifications for meritocracy, using the assignment of students to classrooms and workers to firms as contexts. I argue that there is fundamental distinction between retrospective meritocracy, in which assignments are rewards for past achievements such as test scores, and prospective meritocracy, in which merit is functionally defined by assignments that best achieve social objectives. I show that these different perspectives can lead to different assignment rules. Prospective meritocratic rules account for interactions between individuals and intertemporal effects of assignments in ways that retrospective rules do not. As such, they break standard distinctions between egalitarian and meritocratic rules that are commonly assumed in policy debates. On the other hand, I show that meritocratic rules require knowledge of the appropriate choice of social objective, which may be contested, and a range of facts about the socioeconomic environment in which the rules are to be implements. As such, these are the discontents experienced by a meritocratic. Links to the public choice literature are developed.
Does the US individual income tax display systemic racism? Negative evidence from audited US federal tax return data for 1967–73
Robert P. Strauss, Miguel Gouveia
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Official statistics from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the US Bureau of the Census have long documented differences by ethnicity in employment rates and incomes. Recently, it has been suggested that the structure of the US federal individual tax system is 'systemically racist' which we interpret to mean that the application of the Internal Revenue Code through collection of individual income taxes adversely affects African American compared to White individuals and households. This paper contributes to the public discussion of possible systemic racism in the US tax system issue by studying an unusual set of US individual income tax data. These data differ from those used in other studies in two important ways. First, race is not imputed but obtained from the administrative records of the Social Security Administration. Second, the income tax data are audited tax return data. Using these audited and administratively matched data, we estimate effective income tax functions with an explicit role for race. After accounting for the basic structure of the US tax system, we find no statistical evidence of systemic racism in the operation of the US federal individual income tax during the period under study. Our results show that once income and filing status are taken into account, the effective tax rate tax did not vary by race—a finding that remains robust across multiple checks.
Surprise in contests
Doron Klunover
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We consider a two-player asymmetric dynamic contest with a binary effort choice and a finite number of periods, in which one player wins if and only if he is able to surprise his rival by attacking first. The unique subgame perfect equilibrium in mixed strategies, in which the probability of a surprise increases over time, is examined. It is found that the chance of a surprise is highest at the “last minute.” Nonetheless, it remains small if the cost of effort is small. With an infinite horizon, the probability remains constant over time; however, it increases as players become more impatient. Applications are discussed.
Autonomy and accountability: strategic behaviour of German state leaders during the COVID-19 pandemic
Salvatore Barbaro, Reyn van Ewijk, Julia M. Rode
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This study examines the strategic and opportunistic behaviour of state officials in Germany during the COVID-19 pandemic. Drawing on 600 statements by state incumbents, we provide a comprehensive empirical analysis of state-level political behaviour. Our findings show that German regional leaders emphasised their autonomy when performance metrics were favourable (credit-claiming), but strategically shifted responsibility when outcomes were less favourable (blame-avoidance). This pattern was especially pronounced when public attention was high.

Quarterly Journal of Political Science

Quarterly Journal of Political Science
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The Journal of Politics

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Front Matter
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Signaling Ability Through Policy Change
Benjamin Shaver
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When Conservatives See Red but Liberals Feel Blue: Labeler Characteristics and Variation in Content Annotation
Nora Webb Williams, Andreu Casas, Kevin Aslett, John Wilkerson
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